Due Diligence
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Acquisitions, VC funding, joint ventures, new
product developments and ongoing internal business plans all require
adequate financial and managerial oversight. Stakeholders - shareholders,
partners, directors, customers and employees - insist upon external,
independent validation and commentary on business plans' assumptions. |
There are no second chances today. Investors and senior executives have zero
tolerance for companies and individuals misreading the marketplace. Smooth
optimistic, upward-curving exponential growth charts should provoke doubt and
scrutiny.
While there are certain technologies which are
underestimated in importance,
there are many more that get exaggerated. Forecasts are wildly optimistic,
practical bottlenecks are ignored or overlooked. Real "addressable" market sizes
are exaggerated on the basis of attractive but irrelevant
large macro-scale numbers.
A significant amount of Disruptive Analysis' work already involves giving
"reality checks" to operators, vendors and investors. Looking at business plans,
or listening to new product propositions and go-to-market strategies. Analysing
them for weak points, flawed assumptions, and unidentified dependencies on other
areas.
- Will growth scale smoothly? Are other analysts' forecasts realistic?
- Are your timelines realistic? What about testing? What about legacy
integration?
- What are your implicit assumptions about mobile devices and user
behaviour?
- Will your service really work on a 3G network? And indoors?
- Are there issues around regulation, number and interconnect fees?
- Are there fundamental market differences between US, Europe and Asia?
- How does your plan fit with strategies from Nokia, Apple, Google,
Ericsson, Qualcomm. Microsoft or the largest mobile operators?
Perhaps you're a CFO feeling that a proposed business plan looks a bit too
aggressive. Maybe you're a marketing director trying to appear visionary - but
realistic. Perhaps you're leading a startup that's only got a single chance to
get the right proposition and go-to-market approach. Perhaps you're on the
executive committee of a company that's quite happy to have its preconceptions
and assumptions challenged. Or an investor wondering if you've really found a
hidden gem - or just something that's too good to be true.
Disruptive Analysis has a strong history of being ahead of the game:
September 2003 - New "multimode" wireless devices & services will cause
disruption
June 2005 - UMA to play only a minor role in FMC
November 2005 - First analyst mention of the word "femtocell"
November 2005 - Mobile TV skepticism
April 2006 - Embedded-3G laptops are over-hyped
June 2006 - Mobile industry has forgotten about IMS-capable handsets
November 2007 - Mobile broadband is driving carrier data revenues, not content
June 2008 - Optimising handsets for femtocells
If you want to have your business plan, or investment thesis, reviewed and
dissected (under NDA), or if want a "sanity check" or someone else's market
forecasts, or if you want to organise an internal workshop to test your
assumptions about the wider market.... let us know.
Email: consultancy AT disruptive-analysis DOT com
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